We present the latest polls with those caveats to be borne in mind. In this particular moment in time, though, Biden looks to be in a strong spot ahead of the November election. The margin of error for the registered voter sample was 3.7 percentage points. But the Trump campaign seized on the unrest — sometimes violent in several urban areas across the country — to argue that Democrats were soft on crime and that if Biden won, the threat against law enforcement would grow and spread to the suburbs. The latest polling average puts Biden ahead of Trump nationally. The survey also asked who voters prefer to handle a range of issues. The false link between Amy Coney Barrett and The Handmaid’s Tale, explained. A CNBC/Change Research survey showed Biden with a slimmer lead against Trump, 49% to 46%. 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A CNBC/Change Research poll shows Biden leading Trump by 6 points in Michigan, 50% to 44%. In a new batch of swing-state polling released this weekend by the New York Times and CBS News, Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden continues to lead President Donald Trump in several key states with just 51 days to go until the November election. So there’s astronomical unemployment there.”. Biden still leads Trump in every swing state except North Carolina, where the two candidates are in a virtual tie, with 48% and 47% support, respectively. Our mission has never been more vital than it is in this moment: to empower you through understanding. ", Amanda Kilcrease, a 20-year-old college student, said, "It just feels like if Trump wins again, like, then — and I didn't vote, I would have guilt with that, too, that I didn't take a small action that could have had an opposite outcome. Sign up for free newsletters and get more CNBC delivered to your inbox. Minnesota voted for Clinton in 2016, but a combination of the reaction to the looting in Minneapolis and broader local economic issues are boosting GOP prospects in the state. You know, the rioting and all that stopped.". The president's focus on more rural areas may have limited yield. The race to shift the balance of power in the US Senate is fiercely contested. One possible reason for the consistency seen in polling is that surveys have suggested there are fewer undecided voters than there were in 2016. Biden also leads Trump among registered voters in the key swing states of Wisconsin and North Carolina, according to CNN polls released Tuesday. But the national attention on protests has Trump supporters who rallied for him at the state Capitol last weekend pledging to stick with him. Likely voters were split on who would better help their pocketbooks. Kevin Wood told him, "I'm an independent, but this year, it's a clear choice. We Insist: A Timeline Of Protest Music In 2020, Trump's Rural Support Puts Democratic Bulwark Minnesota In Play. Maayan Silver, from WUWM, talked to voters in the area, many of whom suggested the back-and-forth over the issue was simply reinforcing their positions on the two candidates. Both the president and Biden have visited Michigan in recent days, and the state was part of the "blue wall" of three Midwest states that flipped and supported Trump, handing him the White House in 2016. Only 23% said it was helpful. This time around, the GOP has indicated they’re playing to win in Minnesota. To learn more or opt-out, read our Cookie Policy. In 2018, the state elected a Democrat in a tight gubernatorial race. Each day, the Guardian’s national poll tracker takes a 14-day average of national voting intention polls. On police violence and discrimination, 44% approve of the job the president is doing, while 56% disapprove. Respondents preferred Trump and Republicans on the economy and getting people back to work. But I'm also not happy with the outcome of Biden. New Hampshire, a 2016 squeaker that went for Clinton by just three-tenths of a percent, is also part of that “alternative route” strategy. KTEP's Angela Kocherga visited El Paso, one of Texas' few strongholds for Democrats. See how President Trump is polling against challenger Joe Biden as each vies to win the 2020 presidential election. Biden was born in Scranton, Pennsylvania, and spent his childhood there. That's who he is. Republican state Rep. Dale Lueck represents Aitkin and the surrounding area in rural Minnesota. The Guardian is collating polls in each of these ​states, as well as another set of national polls. hide caption. A new CNN poll of registered voters shows President Trump trouncing former Vice President Joe Biden in key swing states. Miranda July’s enduring love for the weirdo in all of us, One Good Thing: Vintage Nintendo games are good vibes made playable. To win the state, he said, Biden will have to present a clear plan of how his policy vision will help those who need work, and income, right now. Contribute today from as little as $3. A Quinnipiac Poll conducted in mid-July showed Biden leading Trump by 13 points. Despite polls indicating that he is trailing in multiple battleground states, Trump has repeatedly suggested to his supporters that the only way he can lose the election is if Democrats cheat. Additionally, they may be over-counting Democratic support (more people may say they will vote for Biden than actually turn out). Jimmy Jenkins/KJZZ Trump's approval rating has also reached its worst level since February 2019, according to a FiveThirtyEight average. Voters prefer Biden to handle the coronavirus and police violence, while they think Trump will do a better job with the economy and getting people back to work. ", Republican state Rep. Dale Lueck represents Aitkin and the surrounding area in rural Minnesota. It included 951 registered voters and 727 likely voters and was taken between Sept. 20 and Sept. 24. She declined to give her last name because of concerns about the impact on her business, but she said she is disillusioned by Democrats now, pointing to unrest in Minneapolis earlier this year and in other cities, and said even though she backed Clinton four years ago, she cannot get behind Biden. New Biden campaign ad jabs at Trump's reported 0 income tax payments, Biden campaign sells 'I paid more income taxes than Trump' stickers, Trump, Biden have one debate goal: Don't lose, Ocasio-Cortez: Trump contributed less in taxes 'than waitresses and undocumented immigrants', Third judge orders Postal Service to halt delivery cuts, Reporter Jonathan Easley says Tuesday debate will be major test for Biden. She ended up losing in the electoral college. State polls released this week show Democratic nominee Joe Biden leading Republican President Donald Trump in crucial states, such as Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Florida. In 2016, Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton won Minnesota, Nevada, and New Hampshire; Trump won Arizona and Wisconsin. Nationally, Biden leads Trump by an average of about 7.3 percentage points, and he has retained a consistent lead in key swing states like Michigan and Pennsylvania. The New York Times’s major new story reveals that Trump had political, legal, and financial reasons to hold back the returns. About 41% of respondents to recent surveys compiled by FiveThirtyEight approve of the president, while 55% disapprove. Available for everyone, funded by readers. For those deciding to back Biden, meanwhile, the vote appears to be less about enthusiasm for him and more about getting rid of Trump. North Carolina, which was won by Democrat Barack Obama in 2008, has 15 electoral votes. National polls consistently show Biden with a lead, but the contest will come down to an electoral map that hinges on many of the same places that gave Trump the edge four years ago. The hell that is remote learning, explained in a comic. A Franklin & Marshall poll released Thursday showed Biden leading Trump by 7 points in Pennsylvania, 49% to 42%. Biden's lead in averages of both national and swing state polls has widened in recent weeks as the Trump administration struggles to contain the coronavirus pandemic and meet nationwide calls to address police brutality and systemic racism. Supporters of President Trump line up outside of Arnold Palmer Regional Airport to get into a Sept. 3 rally in Latrobe, Pa. But the right-leaning Trafalgar Group poll shows Trump with a slim lead on Biden, 46% to 45%. ", A "law and order" message in crucial Wisconsin. How sorry should Bloomberg really be about his 'Stop and Frisk' policy? The NBC News-Marist poll in Wisconsin surveyed 1,131 adults. Millions turn to Vox each month to understand what’s happening in the news, from the coronavirus crisis to a racial reckoning to what is, quite possibly, the most consequential presidential election of our lifetimes. And given one needs only to win the electoral college rather than the popular vote, a candidate winning over even a portion of a group that may have traditionally voted for his rival could have an outsized effect on results. Another voter affected by the virus and who remains unemployed doesn't blame Trump. But our distinctive brand of explanatory journalism takes resources — particularly during a pandemic and an economic downturn. Experts say Covid-19 cases are likely about to surge. "Well, there is something to be said when they say all these major — these cities that are having problems are run by Democrats. Todd Gardner said that there still is a lot of support for Trump, but that he's prepared to back "anybody but Donald Trump.". A CNBC/Change Research poll shows Biden leading Trump by 3 points in Florida, 49% to 46%. The contents of this site are ©2020 Capitol Hill Publishing Corp., a subsidiary of News Communications, Inc. National polls consistently show Biden with a lead, but the contest will come down to an electoral map that hinges on many of the same places that gave Trump the edge four years ago. As the presidential campaign heats up, the Guardian is tracking the latest polling in eight states that could decide the election, Ashley Kirk, Texas is another reliably red state that some Democrats argue should be considered a swing state this year, with shifting demographics changing the electorate there. The result adds to a series of warning signs for Trump less than five months away from the election. Poll: Biden leads Trump in swing states Wisconsin, Michigan . Trump unloads on Fox News after network polls shows Biden ahead in key swing states. hide caption. On Tuesday 3 November 2020, Americans will vote for their next president, with a choice between ​Donald Trump, the Republican incumbent, or his Democratic challenger, Joe Biden. Biden met with Blake's family and called the president's rhetoric divisive, blaming him for further polarizing the country at a time when race relations are fragile. "It kind of makes me sick to my stomach just knowing that I put one of these people in office," he told Kocherga. Joe Biden leads Donald Trump in six key 2020 swing states, according to a new CNBC/Change Research poll. Its congressional district backed Trump in 2016 but elected a Democrat, Elissa Slotkin, to Congress in 2018. Young Texas voters not excited about either candidate, David Ashcroft and Amanda Kilcrease pose for a portrait in El Paso, Texas. KJZZ's Jimmy Jenkins talked to voters at a farmer's market in Phoenix, where some undecided voters said they were not thrilled with their choices. But Democrats vow not to have a repeat of 2016, when turnout dropped in urban areas like Milwaukee and Madison, and Hillary Clinton's campaign appeared not to pay enough attention to the state. So another surge of coronavirus cases seems likely. A CNBC/Change Research poll has Biden with a narrow lead over Trump, 49% to 47%. Supporters of President Trump line up outside of Arnold Palmer Regional Airport to get into a Sept. 3 rally in Latrobe, Pa. © 2020 Guardian News & Media Limited or its affiliated companies. All Rights Reserved. NPR's Scott Detrow, KJZZ's Jimmy Jenkins, KTEP's Angela Kocherga, WUWM's Maayan Silver, WKAR's Abigail Censky and MPR's Mark Zdechlik contributed to this report. As CNN’s John Harwood points out, Biden is also quite a bit more popular than Clinton was in 2016, while the majority of Americans still dislike Trump. I know we live in a divided nation, but it just seems he's made it more divided than it has to be. hide caption. Even when the economy and the news advertising market recovers, your support will be a critical part of sustaining our resource-intensive work, and helping everyone make sense of an increasingly chaotic world. David Ashcroft, a 21-year-old waiter, appeared repelled by both candidates. The likely voter sample had a margin of error of 4.6 percentage points, and the registered voter sample had a margin of error of 4.1 percentage points. The margin of error for the registered voter sample was 3.7 percentage points. Minority rule has reached the highest court in the land. The theme was prevalent throughout the Republican convention, with a focus on protests in Kenosha, Wis., following the police shooting of Jacob Blake, a Black man paralyzed after being shot multiple times in the back in late August. Here’s what one week of online school is like for my 7- and 5-year-old kids. He instills riots and discord," said Karen Cayman, who lives in an area north of Milwaukee. But the story spread anyway. The latest polling average puts Joe Biden ahead of Trump nationally. The incident put the issue that the president has been focused on front and center in a state Trump won by less than 23,000 votes in 2016. WKAR's Abigail Censky visited one town, Williamston, that is competitive this time around and where there appears to be a split. I just want to stress that. But that doesn’t guarantee ​the Democratic candidate victory. The entire [Las Vegas] strip is shut down, for the most part. The new polls show a stark gender divide, with women propelling Biden into contention in states Trump must win. In 2016, Trump defeated Clinton, 49.02% to 47.82%. Millions rely on Vox’s explainers to understand an increasingly chaotic world. A Division of NBCUniversal. A resident of Kenosha, Wis., puts up a yard sign for Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden on Sept. 3. However, the New York Times and CBS polls would appear to throw some cold water on Trump’s Minnesota ambitions: While Clinton eked out a narrow win by less than 2 percent in 2016, both the New York Times and CBS show Biden leading Trump by 9 percentage points. According to poll aggregator Real Clear Politics, Biden leads Trump in every Michigan poll. CBS reports Biden narrowly leads Trump by 3 percentage points in Arizona, and according to the New York Times poll, Biden is up by 5 percentage points in Wisconsin. These latest results fall in line with these standing trends. The survey found the presumptive Democratic presidential nominee leads the incumbent by a 48% to 45% margin across Arizona, Florida, Michigan, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, which will determine who wins the White House in November. The poll attributed Biden’s lead among likely voters in Michigan to his majority support among Black voters, women, independents, white voters with college degrees and seniors. We want to hear from you. Polls: Joe Biden leads Trump in several key swing states, We now know what Trump was trying to hide by holding back his tax returns. In Nevada, where Trump held a rally on Saturday, Biden also has a small lead of 4 percentage points — but Chuck Rocha, a former adviser to the Bernie Sanders campaign, says that Democrats need to take the state more seriously, or that might change: “What’s underreported right [now] is the problem in Nevada,” Rocha said.